Google is winning the war against nonsecure websites, taking preference to those with SSL certification.

It's been almost two years since Google announced that HTTPS was a ranking signal.  Speculation ran rampant in the marketing industry, as usual, with some suggesting there was little or no benefit to switching while others rushed to sell customers on making the HTTPS switch.  Two years later, the data shows Google is fighting, and winning, a long war.

So most of us thought there was nothing to worry about.  However, two years on 32.5% (almost one-third) of page 1 Google results now use the HTTPS protocol.

Google has successfully led digital marketers and site owners to believe that HTTPS will be rewarded, and this has drastically sped up the shift.  An algorithm update is risky and can cause collateral damage.  Convincing us that change is for our own good is risk-free for Google.

Google has to strike a balance.  If they reward sites with HTTPS when very few sites are using it, then they risk a lot of collateral damage to good sites that just haven't made the switch.  If, on the other hand, they wait until most sites have switched, a reward is moot.  If 100% of sites are on HTTPS and they reward those sites, nothing happens.  They also have to be careful not to set the reward too high, or sites might switch simply to game the system.

If rewarding HTTPS too heavily when adoption is low is risky and rewarding it when adoption is too high is pointless, then, naturally, the perfect time to strike is somewhere in the middle.  At 30% adoption, we're starting to edge into that middle territory.  When adoption hits something like 50-60%, I suspect it will make sense for Google to turn up the algorithmic volume on HTTPS.

In many ways, Google has already been successful.  Even without a major, algorithmic HTTPS boost, sites continue to make the switch.  As the number climbs, though, the odds of a larger boost increase.  I suspect the war is going to be over sooner than later.

Any major change to site wide URLs is risky, especially for large sites.  If you weigh the time, money, and risk of the switch against what is still a small algorithmic boost, I think it's a tough sell in many cases.  These risks are not theoretical, back in May, Wired.com wrote up the many problems they've encountered during their HTTPS switch, a switch that they've since paused to reconsider.

Like any major, site wide change, you have to consider the broader business case, costs, and benefits.  I suspect that pressure from Google will increase, especially as adoption increases, and that we're within a year of a tipping point where half of page 1 results will be running on HTTPS.  Be aware of how the adoption rate is moving in your own industry and be alert, because I suspect we could see another HTTPS algorithm update in the next 6-12 months.